The election of the current president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, was an important event in the Southeast Asian region. The region, which is attracted by global powers, led by the United States and China, could be blown by the Chinese wind more strongly than usual this time, as the current president has always stated positions understood as moving away from American hegemony and moving closer to the Chinese neighbor. This will lead the region, especially the ASEAN countries, to more conciliatory positions with China, which in turn could be a real blow to US attempts to curb the rise of the Chinese dragon globally and prevent it from devouring the South China Sea and moving towards a more influential role in international politics.

Influence struggle

It is important to note that the East and Southeast Asia region has historically been an area of conflict between two major regional powers, China and Japan. This conflict reached a level where Japan occupied the Manchuria region in northeastern China (1931-1946). The factors of conflict in the region increased the entry of European colonial powers such as the Portuguese who controlled East Timor, the Dutch who controlled Indonesia, the English who occupied Malaysia and Burma, the French who controlled Vietnam, and of course the Spanish who were colonizing the Philippines, which meant that most countries in the region were under European occupation.

China was hit hard by the penetration and spread of European colonialism in its traditional sphere of influence and later direct aggression against China. The collapse of the two-millennium empire at the hands of the People's Revolution in 1912 and the Communists' engagement with the Nationalists in a long and devastating war occupied China internally, which led to the decline of its role and the replacement of Japan in the early twentieth century, especially in the South China Sea.

With the decline of Japanese influence after the devastating loss in World War II and the vacating of the region for American influence, which began with the purchase of the Philippine colony from Spain at the beginning of the twentieth century and developed after the great American victory in World War II, China suffered for many reasons from a situation that placed it in the ranks of the third world and not the developed countries, but in the late 1980s it began to experience an economic boom and stability that it had not enjoyed for a long time while the Soviet Union was collapsing and the world was moving towards becoming unipolar.

With the absence of the Soviet threat and the collapse of the Eastern camp, America found itself for the first time controlling the world without rivals, but it began to notice that its huge spending on armaments during the Cold War and the subsequent decline in the need for this, has led to the distortion of the economy and the decline in the level of welfare, unemployment and the growth rate of national income, in light of the emergence of China as a huge economic and strategic power that is developing with great strides towards the top of influence in the world, which reminds it of its situation before World War I, where Britain was the first military power and the United States the first economically, and Britain quickly lost its role to be replaced by America, which is

The U.S. Standoff with the Red Dragon

In addition to the development of the Chinese economy, several factors must be available for China to reach its goals in international politics, the most important of which is the availability of stability in the region as well as safe trade lines that allow it to obtain energy at reasonable prices and access to global markets, especially in Africa and the Middle East without obstacles, and therefore the United States worked to disrupt the Chinese project by destabilizing the region and encouraging the establishment of pro-Chinese regimes along the maritime silk line that China wants to establish.

Perhaps the Americans, by virtue of their long presence in the region, realized how important the South China Sea region is to China; they worked to prevent them from benefiting from it and are used as a tool of tension and anxiety in the region; keeping China busy in the region and distracting its attention and ambitions from areas further afield, and perhaps used as a pretext for a Western and especially American presence that hinders Chinese expansion and drains it in any potential conflict with countries in the region such as the Philippines or Vietnam.

The importance of the South China Sea to China lies in several factors, as it views it as an integral part of Chinese territory and therefore has the right to benefit from its natural resources, knowing that the entire China Sea is a relatively shallow area that is easy to explore for natural resources, especially oil and gas, which many believe exist there, and the escalating population growth makes the region a primary source of cheap food, in addition to the well-known strategic reasons, as the South China Sea is surrounded by about eight countries and is the main route for international trade for the entire region.

Of course, China's enormous power makes it easily able to impose its hegemony over the region and impose its conditions on the neighborhood, especially after the decline of Japan's role and military power, based on historical evidence and ethnic extensions throughout the region, and here the interest of countries such as Japan and Australia, as well as the United States of America, is to support the countries of the region and make them stand cohesively in front of the Chinese genie so that they do not encroach on the region as a whole. It has long supported multiple countries in the region, especially those that are part of the ASEAN organization, led by the Philippines, which was headed by a president with Western leanings (Aquino), and perhaps it was in this context that the Philippines invited the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to arbitrate the issue of sovereignty over the Mediterranean Sea. This is what China has always opposed and called for not internationalizing the issue and resolving it through direct negotiations, because it knows that the entire international system is more or less subject to the American will, and it has always raised the slogan that the South China Sea is Chinese territory and it is not correct according to international law to dispute it before international courts because it is classified as a matter related to the sovereignty and internal affairs of states, as it initially rejects the legitimacy of the court and rejects any decision that may be issued.

Duterte Sails the Philippine Sail to China

A few days ago, an arbitration award was issued in the case that the Philippines filed against China, accusing it of aggression in its territorial waters and preventing it from benefiting from its natural resources, in addition to establishing military installations in the region that would establish a new fait accompli in favor of China.

From the beginning, China rejected the idea of international arbitration of the dispute, knowing that the Philippines is not the only country that could file a case of this kind if the door is opened in this regard, there is Vietnam, which fought a fierce war with China at the end of the 1970s, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and others, so China has stuck to its position that the South China Sea is an integral part of Chinese territory and sovereignty, and it is ready for a bilateral settlement of any disputes in this regard. It is ready for a bilateral settlement of any disputes in this regard and aims to prevent international, especially American, intervention in the region, which could upset the regional balance of power and deprive China of its superiority in this field and thus the possibility of imposing its vision and position on regional countries that are much smaller than it in terms of power and influence.

Therefore, the United States has harnessed all its capabilities for this purpose, and its pressure, which may have coincided with a Philippine desire, to file a case against China on the grounds that it violates the international law of the sea adopted by the United Nations. By doing so, it wants to portray China as a country outside international law and legitimize any possible sanctions against it and make it vulnerable to blackmail or involvement in a regional conflict that may turn into an international conflict that, as we have already mentioned, drains Chinese power and prevents it from becoming the future superpower of the world.

But it seems that America's policy of supporting rulers who are loyal to the American project and easy to turn into soft tools in its hands does not always work. After decades of suffering from the Filipino people's decline in security, the spread of crime and drugs, rampant corruption and declining services, they decided to turn the tables by electing a man who is often described as the Trump of the Philippines in terms of his verbal violence and adoption of unfamiliar visions.

Duterte the Savior or Duterte the Extremist

In his election campaign, Duterte presented himself as the savior of the Philippines from its internal crises, promising voters that he would rid them of organized crime within three to six months if elected, which would take the country to quantum leaps on all levels, especially the economy, to which he pays great attention, especially since he came from a very poor region and from a leftist background.

In terms of foreign policy, it was noticeable that his statements were critical of the American behavior in the region, specifically regarding the Philippines, which was automatically interpreted as an indirect bias towards the Chinese side in the conflict over the region, although Duterte had stated during his election campaign that he would take the initiative to raise the Philippine flag on the islands disputed with China, but this did not happen and China did not take him seriously. It is noteworthy that the Chinese president has not visited the Philippines since he took office, which is understood as a Chinese desire to rapprochement with the new president after a period of coldness with the previous president, and despite the United States' assertion that relations with the Philippines after the election of the current president are still good, this relationship is shrouded in a lot of negative expectation.

The mental image that the Western/international media will paint of Duterte as a savior or an extremist will often be determined by his approach or adoption of the US approach to the relationship with China, especially since he is now engaged in a fierce campaign against criminal organizations and corruption in a country where these phenomena have taken root, which will bring the country into a state of security tension. The president will need significant support from the opposition, the military, and civil society to continue his campaign until it bears fruit, and if the United States wishes, it will make it almost impossible for the president to continue his campaign by disrupting it due to its deep influence in the Philippine state and all segments of Philippine society.

Court decision and Detorte's position

What the media, and the US media in particular, ignore is that the case brought by the Philippines against China is not at all related to sovereignty over the South China Sea, and therefore the ruling issued by the court in favor of the Philippines will not change much in reality even if China abides by it, as the court is not authorized to arbitrate on the issue of state sovereignty and therefore the Philippines requested arbitration mainly on the issue of the destructive impact of Chinese facilities in the South China Sea on marine life and the harassment and prevention by the Chinese Navy of Filipino fishermen from using it.

There is no doubt that the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, an independent court that is different from the International Court of Justice and not affiliated with the United Nations, has made Duterte's negotiating position with China better, despite the fact that its decisions do not take on a binding character, as it has made his moral position stronger as he goes to bilateral negotiations, as he and his foreign minister announced after the ruling, to settle the dispute with China, which China has demanded over the past decades, which can be considered a victory for Chinese diplomacy in this context, as it managed to pull the Philippines from the square of the American approach to the issue of escalation and litigation, to the square of bilateral negotiations and litigation.

Commenting on the ASEAN summit statement that ignored the condemnation of China after the court ruling in favor of the Philippines, some observers and media outlets portrayed it as a victory for China and a reflection of its influence in ASEAN, which was later denied by the Philippine foreign minister, who stated that his government, knowing that it was heading towards a bilaterally negotiated solution with China, was not much concerned with escalation with China and thus the issuance of the condemnation. This is why it is in the interest of ASEAN members not to antagonize China and take advantage of the capabilities of this giant neighbor, while at the same time not showing hostility to the United States, which they have long regarded as a guarantee against any Chinese military encroachment on the region.

It is true that the United States has authorized the Philippines to use its military bases in the region when necessary to confront China, and that Australia has provided military grants to the Philippines, as has Japan, but all this did not solve the fact that the Philippine army is still the weakest in the region and that upgrading it may require hundreds of billions of dollars, which is not covered by American or other generosity, and therefore the imbalance of power in favor of China is inevitable, given the need for the Philippines, which has suffered for many decades from poverty due to corruption, organized crime and other reasons, and underdeveloped infrastructure that any serious development process requires, so the negotiations with

It seems that the United States, Japan and South Korea have sensed the danger of a possible reconciliation between China and the Philippines. A few days ago, South Korea announced its desire to share its missile capabilities with the United States, which, in addition to its alliance with Japan, means a real strategic threat to China given that Korea and Japan are neighboring countries to China and not like America, which is thousands of miles away, which also provides a local launch and supply base in the event of an armed conflict in the region.

Conclusion

The ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of the Philippines against China in the South China Sea issue has put the new Philippine president in a good negotiating position vis-à-vis China, which has long appealed to the Philippines to end the issue through direct negotiations, which is likely to happen soon in the interest of both countries, on the other hand Any such reconciliation would threaten the US strategy in the region, which requires China to remain preoccupied and exhausted by igniting conflicts with its neighbors, so the negative situation with South Korea has developed rapidly, which will predict changes in the map of powers in the region in the near future.