The recent escalation between Israel and Iran and its threats to undermine the regime in Tehran opens the door to dangerous scenarios whose repercussions are not limited to the two parties to the conflict, but extend to neighboring countries, primarily India as a pivotal country in South Asia with a sensitive geopolitical position and a complex history of relations with Tehran and Tel Aviv.

This unprecedented military escalation presents India with a complex diplomatic test and a highly sensitive position, as it has a deep security and strategic partnership with Israel On the other hand, it is keen to maintain its economic ties with Iran, which has long been an important energy supplier and partner in regional connectivity projects such as the Chabahar port.

According to an analytical article in the American magazine Foreign Policy, India, which has always adopted a foreign policy based on balancing its relations with competing countries during crises, is facing the maturity of the role it will play in the current crisis, amid questions about whether it will remain cautiously neutral or provide indirect support to Israel? How will this role affect its regional and international standing, especially as it seeks to emerge as a balanced Asian power in a polarized environment?

India and Israel have advanced military and security ties that include huge arms deals (AP)

India-Israel Partnership

Since the early 1990s, the India-Israel Relations A paradigm shift from covert security cooperation to an open and multifaceted partnership in defense, advanced technology, cybersecurity, and agriculture.

Tel Aviv has become one of India's leading arms suppliers, with the two sides signing billions of dollars in defense deals over the past decade.

With the rise of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi He was the first Indian leader to officially visit Israel in 2017, describing the relationship between the two countries as "special" and based on "facing common threats," a reference to the security and terrorism challenges as perceived by New Delhi and Tel Aviv.

Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa flood Prime Minister Modi emphasized that "terrorism has no place in our world," while Iran's ambassador to India, Iraj Elahi, called on New Delhi to condemn the occupation's crimes in Gaza and use its relations with Israel to stop the genocide, reflecting a clear contradiction between the two sides.

However, the Indian position has made it clear that it is against the expansion of conflict in the region, and the Indian foreign minister has expressed India's willingness to play a mediating role between Israel and Iran following the military confrontation between them last year.

India ranks high on the list of Israeli arms importers, accounting for about 42% of Tel Aviv's military exports, including advanced systems such as Heron and Hermes 900 drones, Barak air defense systems, early warning systems, as well as joint military exercises and intelligence sharing in "counter-terrorism" files.

India's Economic Partnership with Iran

Despite its growing ties with Israel, the New Delhi It has maintained active relations with Tehran based on regional energy and transportation interests. For years, Iran has been India's main supplier of crude oil, and is involved in the development of the strategic Iranian port of Chabahar, which is a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia without passing through Pakistan.

But since 2019, U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports have forced India to significantly scale back cooperation with Tehran, and in February 2025, four Indian companies were sanctioned for importing Iranian oil.

The Chabahar project also faced pressure from Washington despite its increasing strategic importance, which contributed to a decline in India's exports to Iran of rice and medicines, while cooperation continued in areas such as maritime security and energy. Despite the decline in oil imports, channels of communication remained open, as New Delhi emphasized expanding its presence in the Chabahar port, and areas of cooperation in the Afghan file expanded, especially after the US withdrawal.

However, the relationship between the two countries is not without tension, as Iran has on more than one occasion made no secret of its resentment that India is sacrificing it under pressure from the West or to appease Israel, which it has expressed through the support of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to the struggle of the Kashmiri people and asking the world's Muslims to support them to get rid of the occupation.

Khamenei described the current situation in Kashmir as a result of malicious actions for Britain However, New Delhi is keen to keep Iran within the sphere of soft influence without engaging in a direct alliance with it, for fear of damaging its Gulf and American relations. It is also keen to keep Iran within the sphere of soft influence without engaging in a direct alliance with it, for fear of damaging its Gulf and American relations.

India's position on the recent escalation

Since the start of the Israeli attacks on Iran on June 13, India has taken a restrained stance, consistent with what we have seen over the past two years. After abstaining from voting on a UN General Assembly resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, India refused to join a statement Shanghai Organization which condemned the Israeli attacks on Iran as a violation of Iranian sovereignty.

Instead, India's Ministry of External Affairs issued a brief statement calling on all parties to "exercise restraint and return to dialogue," without mentioning any particular party in its attempt to maintain a strategy of "appearing as a sane power in a turbulent world." It did not condemn Israel, but it did not bless its attacks either.

Michael Kugelman, author of Foreign Policy's weekly briefing on events in South Asia, noted that New Delhi's decision reflects the extent of the diplomatic difficulties it will face in dealing with a serious new conflict in the Middle East.

The opposition has accused the Modi government of abandoning its historic "non-alignment" policy and moving closer to Israel, especially the Congress Party, which described this as "excessive closeness to Israel at the expense of India's moral standing." The opposition has accused the Modi government of abandoning its historic "non-alignment" policy and moving closer to Israel.

The Indian Foreign Ministry justified these positions as "balanced diplomacy" and argued that the wording of some international statements "tends to unilaterally condemn Israel without taking into account the complexities of reality."

The ministry also expressed "deep concern" over the ongoing tension and called on all parties to "de-escalate and return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy," emphasizing that "India's economic and geopolitical interests make it imperative that relations with Tehran into a polarizing axis."

Tehran believes that India's reluctance to support India's positions in international forums may not just be a diplomatic reservation, but an implicit siding with Israel, which increases Iranian fears that India's partnerships with Tel Aviv could be used to share intelligence or monitor Iranian influence in areas such as Afghanistan or the Arabian Sea.

India has major economic partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and millions of workers from the Indian community residing there are a vital component of its economy. This makes New Delhi careful not to upset the Gulf capitals, whether through excessive closeness to Iran or exaggerated escalation in support of Israel.

The role of India's geopolitical rival China, which has close ties with Tehran, whether through the Belt and Road Initiative or in military and intelligence cooperation, cannot be ignored.

New Delhi fears that a sharp Iranian-Israeli confrontation would push Iran further toward Beijing at the expense of a potential partnership with India, and could weaken its ability to play the role of an "East-West bridge."

Benefits vs. high risk

India's potential motives for undeclared support for Israel, if any, are based on several strategic considerations, most notably ensuring continued access to advanced defense technologies and strengthening the partnership with United States In the context of a soft confrontation with China, reducing dependence on Iran as a source of energy, as well as benefiting from technology transfer in vital sectors such as water and agriculture.

But these benefits are offset by high risks, including escalating tensions with Iran and the Gulf states, and growing domestic tensions as a result of popular rejection of any explicit alliance with Israel, especially among India's Muslim minority.

The continued cautious silence may give India a temporary margin of maneuver, but at the same time it opens the door to increasing pressure from Washington and Tel Aviv to strengthen the partnership in areas Cybersecurity and intelligence, especially if the confrontation is prolonged.

On the other hand, Tehran may see this neutrality as complicity, which could jeopardize projects like Chabahar and revitalize unspoken border tensions between the two countries.

In this context, New Delhi is likely to seek to play a dual role in the coming phase by presenting itself as a trustworthy mediator, while strengthening cooperation with Israel on specific issues without engaging in a declared alliance.

According to Foreign Policy, India's approach to the Israeli-Iranian conflict is similar to its stance on the war in Ukraine: on the one hand, it will not condemn Israel and its leaders for the attacks, and on the other, it will emphasize the need to de-escalate the confrontations between the two countries and make room for diplomacy to end them.

The biggest challenge for Indian politics is to prove that it can maintain this delicate balance in a region that is becoming more polarized and less tolerant of neutrality.